Oil, Blood, Sweat and Tears
30-second summary:
Oil - BP's Statistical Review of Global Energy 2018
When BP released the latest release of this document, they emphasized that we are on a unsustainable path when tackling global temperaturewarming heating. It is not only scientists and climate activists that warns about the heating - even executives in the fossil industry are raising their voices. It is time to listen.
The CO2e emissions were on an all-time high level for 2018. An important part of the increase was related to extreme weather patterns (read: extreme heatwaves, storms and draughts).
Sweat - European Heat Waves
In July and August, 2003, a heatwave struck Europe with temperatures up to 44.1 degrees Celsius. The heatwave was estimated to have caused some 35-70 000 deaths, almost 15 000 in France alone. Some French morgues weren't able to take care of more bodies. On top of this disaster, Europe saw a significant drop in wheat productions.
A couple of days ago, that record was exceeded by almost two degrees Celsius. The temperatures in Gallargues-le-Montueux reached temperatures that are seen in Death Valley California.
It will take time to get estimates of the death tolls for this heat wave, but five digit numbers are unfortunately realistic. French authorities has taken actions to assist vulnerable people, offering cooling rooms and providing water to elderly and children.
Sweat - Heat wave in India
Meanwhile, another heat wave struck India with temperatures above 50 degrees Celsius. Combined with a growing population and an ongoing massive water crisis thatseems to be is caused by global warming, waste and poor resource handling, more than twenty Indian cities face the risk of running out of fresh water the next year.
In the micro scale, a single heat wave is caused by several factors in an extremely complex web of causes, effects, correlations and coincidences. But on the macro scale, more frequent waves are predicted results of global heating. What happens now is not an exaggerated Hollywood blockbuster movie. It happens for real, it is affecting real people, it happens here and now. The CO2e/temperature levels weare heading for are at now are dangerous!
Oil and Blood? - Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
When analyzing the oil flow of the world, and also keeping the total oil dependency in mind, it is clear that it will be crucial for several countries to control the Strait of Hormuz. This applies to the US in particular, given its scarce resources and its huge demand for oil.
The tensions between the US and Iran are getting worse, with US troops, amphibious assault ships and military airplanes being sent into the area. The political, cultural and military aspects of this conflict is far beyond my competence area, so myanalysis dude-guessing here should be taken with tonnes of salt.
It is clear to me that oil is the blood of oureconomy entire ways of living, and that the Strait of Hormuz is the aorta of the oil industry with a large share of the worlds oil passing that strait.
Speculation: The deployment of amphibious assault ships near Iran can have two purposes: Either to threat with deploying troops from sea to land, or to threat someone to do that. An amphibious assault on mainland Iran or Qeshm (the bigger island) would lead to extremely hard resistance from Iran. However, an assault on a smaller island in that strait, together with an A2AD zone might appear tempting to the current US administration, I fear. I hope this will never happen, since there are already too much violence in that area.
Oil and Tears: The Gasoline Rebellion
In April this year, the Gasoline Rebellion (Bensinupproret), a Facebook group was formed that reached more than 660k members within only a couple of months - by far the biggest group in the Swedish Facebook universe, where the second biggest group collected less than half of that size.
The group argues that the fuel taxes are too high and that the petrol prices must drop from 17 SEK (1,6 EUR or 1,8 USD) per litre to 12 SEK and they have got quite some media coverage. I would disagree in their opinion that petrol prices are too high - the energy of two litres of gasoline (34 SEK/3 EUR/3.5 USD) corresponds to 40 hours of hard labor, and that is not expensive!
Bensinupproret has addressed some important points however. It touched the conflict between rural and urban, and it mobilized many voices that aren't that audible in the public debate - and that is necessary! We must reach the IPCC Paris targets without throwing people in rural areas and people with harder economic constraints under the bus. It is easy for someone living and working in a dense urban area to go by bike or mass transit. For someone living in a small village with only a couple of bus connections a day and working odd hours, it is much harder to skip the car.
Environmentalists has often been accused of having a narrow upper-middle-class mindset that doesn't apply for "Jane the plumber" and "Joe the nurse". When a society decides to phase out fossil cars, the same society must provide sustainable options!
Global heating, peak-oil and the fact that we only discover a small fraction of the oil we use and the fact that the demand from Asia is increasing sharply will most likely lead to a scarcity of oil and increasing petrol prices. I fear that the prices will reach levels where neither tax reductions nor subsidies will make petrol affordable again.
The message from this group to Swedish politicians is that high taxes on petrol will not be tolerated. I believe that petrol needs to be expensive in order for us to avoid the consequences of Peak-Oil and reduce the effects of global heating. This group is by far outnumbering the environmentalist groups that I've seen on Facebook and that is a clear message to me that there are large segments of the population that aren't willing to see higher petrol prices.
Side Note 1: My CO2e Project
My current prediction for my personal emissions are: 3.7 tonnes of CO2e. Together with the public emissions of 3.8 tonnes (Sweden), that would make 7.5 tonnes of CO2e.
Side Note 2:
Reducing my emissions is a important project, but not sufficient. I will need to scale up and add some more areas to focus on:
- We emitted more CO2e than ever in 2018.
- Heat waves in Europe with higher temperatures than the disastrous heat wave in 2003.
- Heat wave and severe water shortage in India that will worsen the coming years.
- Heat waves are predicted results of global heating.
- The Strait of Hormuz is essential for oil supply. Anyone who controls it will control the world economy. US are deploying troops and amphibious assault ships to that region. Is that a threat or preparations for war against Iran?
- 660k Swedish Facebook users are opposing high petrol prices. The group has addressed an urban-rural conflict area, and might defer politicians from tackling global heating.
Oil - BP's Statistical Review of Global Energy 2018
When BP released the latest release of this document, they emphasized that we are on a unsustainable path when tackling global temperature
The CO2e emissions were on an all-time high level for 2018. An important part of the increase was related to extreme weather patterns (read: extreme heatwaves, storms and draughts).
- When the temperatures reach dangerous levels, people tend to install air conditioners rather than exposing their kind ones of heat exhaustion. That requires electricity which in turn increases carbon emissions.
- Evacuating from storms and rebuilding damaged property requires a lot of transportation (carbon emissions).
- Draughts will require transportation of water - carbon emissions.
Sweat - European Heat Waves
In July and August, 2003, a heatwave struck Europe with temperatures up to 44.1 degrees Celsius. The heatwave was estimated to have caused some 35-70 000 deaths, almost 15 000 in France alone. Some French morgues weren't able to take care of more bodies. On top of this disaster, Europe saw a significant drop in wheat productions.
 |
| July and August are generally hotter than June. A similar heatwave coming to France later in the summer may add up to a higher baseline - and possibly even higher temperatures. |
A couple of days ago, that record was exceeded by almost two degrees Celsius. The temperatures in Gallargues-le-Montueux reached temperatures that are seen in Death Valley California.
 |
| Road sign in Death Valley, California. Soon to be used in France? French translation: Attention! Chaleur Extreme. Danger! |
Sweat - Heat wave in India
Meanwhile, another heat wave struck India with temperatures above 50 degrees Celsius. Combined with a growing population and an ongoing massive water crisis that
In the micro scale, a single heat wave is caused by several factors in an extremely complex web of causes, effects, correlations and coincidences. But on the macro scale, more frequent waves are predicted results of global heating. What happens now is not an exaggerated Hollywood blockbuster movie. It happens for real, it is affecting real people, it happens here and now. The CO2e/temperature levels we
Oil and Blood? - Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
When analyzing the oil flow of the world, and also keeping the total oil dependency in mind, it is clear that it will be crucial for several countries to control the Strait of Hormuz. This applies to the US in particular, given its scarce resources and its huge demand for oil.
The tensions between the US and Iran are getting worse, with US troops, amphibious assault ships and military airplanes being sent into the area. The political, cultural and military aspects of this conflict is far beyond my competence area, so my
It is clear to me that oil is the blood of our
 |
| The distance between Qeshm and Khasab, Oman is 55 km. |
Speculation: The deployment of amphibious assault ships near Iran can have two purposes: Either to threat with deploying troops from sea to land, or to threat someone to do that. An amphibious assault on mainland Iran or Qeshm (the bigger island) would lead to extremely hard resistance from Iran. However, an assault on a smaller island in that strait, together with an A2AD zone might appear tempting to the current US administration, I fear. I hope this will never happen, since there are already too much violence in that area.
Oil and Tears: The Gasoline Rebellion
In April this year, the Gasoline Rebellion (Bensinupproret), a Facebook group was formed that reached more than 660k members within only a couple of months - by far the biggest group in the Swedish Facebook universe, where the second biggest group collected less than half of that size.
The group argues that the fuel taxes are too high and that the petrol prices must drop from 17 SEK (1,6 EUR or 1,8 USD) per litre to 12 SEK and they have got quite some media coverage. I would disagree in their opinion that petrol prices are too high - the energy of two litres of gasoline (34 SEK/3 EUR/3.5 USD) corresponds to 40 hours of hard labor, and that is not expensive!
Bensinupproret has addressed some important points however. It touched the conflict between rural and urban, and it mobilized many voices that aren't that audible in the public debate - and that is necessary! We must reach the IPCC Paris targets without throwing people in rural areas and people with harder economic constraints under the bus. It is easy for someone living and working in a dense urban area to go by bike or mass transit. For someone living in a small village with only a couple of bus connections a day and working odd hours, it is much harder to skip the car.
Environmentalists has often been accused of having a narrow upper-middle-class mindset that doesn't apply for "Jane the plumber" and "Joe the nurse". When a society decides to phase out fossil cars, the same society must provide sustainable options!
Global heating, peak-oil and the fact that we only discover a small fraction of the oil we use and the fact that the demand from Asia is increasing sharply will most likely lead to a scarcity of oil and increasing petrol prices. I fear that the prices will reach levels where neither tax reductions nor subsidies will make petrol affordable again.
The message from this group to Swedish politicians is that high taxes on petrol will not be tolerated. I believe that petrol needs to be expensive in order for us to avoid the consequences of Peak-Oil and reduce the effects of global heating. This group is by far outnumbering the environmentalist groups that I've seen on Facebook and that is a clear message to me that there are large segments of the population that aren't willing to see higher petrol prices.
Side Note 1: My CO2e Project
My current prediction for my personal emissions are: 3.7 tonnes of CO2e. Together with the public emissions of 3.8 tonnes (Sweden), that would make 7.5 tonnes of CO2e.
Side Note 2:
Reducing my emissions is a important project, but not sufficient. I will need to scale up and add some more areas to focus on:
- Talking - telling about global heating and peak oil. I'm already doing this on my blog, but I'm checking if I can organize.
- Crowdfunding - I'm investigating whether my money can help reducing emissions on other projects. This is not to be confused with offsetting. I'll try to write a blog post about it later.
- Bracing - I'll elaborate more in later posts.
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